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第三次交通革命來臨,台灣要搶食大餅 (2017-09-07 IEK產業情報網 )

Dr. Sun Yat-Sen, the founding father of Republic of China said, “Transportation is the mother of industry.” Tesla announced on March 28 that Tencent’s has acquired 5% equity shares of Tesla through a $1.7 billion investment, and Tesla’s stock price hit a record high after the announcement. Recently, the world’s powerful nations have been developing an innovative model for shared electronic autonomous vehicles, which will bring about the third urban traffic revolution in 2025. Taiwan should take the advantage of ICT industry and include shared autonomous vehicles in the Forward-Looking Infrastructure Plan to actively compete for the big business opportunities arising from the global new generation automobile industry.
The integrative innovation of automobile and ICT technology is the hottest topic this year. Intel acquired Mobileye, an Israeli driver assistance system company, for $15.3 billion on March 13, and expected to launch the autonomous vehicle in 2024. This news shocked the world. SoftBank Group released news about its $6 billion investment in Didi Chuxing and will cooperate with Tencent to accelerate the development of autonomous vehicles and car sharing service. McKinsey predicted that, by 2025, the global market of advance driver assistance system (ADAS) will worth a value between $20 billion to $30 billion.
The world’s top two industries are automobile industry and ICT industry. The market of these two industries is comparable in size. Each has about $1.5 trillion revenue from hardware. However, the market value of big ICT manufacturers is far higher than that of big automobile manufacturers, indicating that the value of ICT innovation elements is much higher than that of traditional automobile elements.
In 2012, the total market value of the 50 largest automobile manufacturers was only 1/3 of that of the ICT industry ($1.9 trillion for the ICT industry and $0.7 trillion for the automobile industry). Let us look at the market value of March 28, the gap between the two industries was even bigger. The total market value of the global top ten automobile manufacturers were about $650 billion, which was worlds apart from the $3.8 trillion total market value of the global top ten ICT manufacturers, and even lower than Apple’s $754 billion market value. The market value of Toyota, the world’s biggest automobile manufacturer was $166 billion, which is similar to TSMC, the tenth largest ICT manufacturer in the world. The market value of General Motor, the US’s automobile giant was $53.2 billion, which was slightly ahead of the market value of the technology-oriented Tesla ($45.2 billion), but might shrink in the future.
The world’s leading research institutions are competing to express their brilliant views on the topic of future automotive technology. Overall, artificial intelligence (AI) and various ICT technologies will be applied to the smart vehicles with full speed. The ADAS function will be enhanced for safety, and big data analysis and optimization of car sharing operation mode will be applied to the service side.
TechCrunch proposed this year’s seven big trends of automotive technologies: (1) the automobile industry has started to use irreversible transaction block chain to manage the supply chain; (2) augmented reality (AR) will assist in improving driving safety and automotive design maintenance; (3) 3D printing will become the next cost savior; (4) the autonomous vehicles will begin to travel on the road; (5) machine learning will strengthen automotive network safety; (6) the revenue of car-sharing will grow exponentially; and (7) big data will bring substantial benefits to the automobile industry and consumers.
In the past, cars were defined by engines. In the new generation of automobile 3.0, cars are defined by software. Software and digital smart control system is the brain and soul of automobiles. In the scenario of automobile 3.0, or era of shared autonomous vehicles, the automobile consumption culture will experience a big change. The traditional concept of car purchase and driving will change. People will rethink the purpose of automobiles. Lyft, a big car sharing company in the US, pointed out, each automobile in the US is used for less than 4% of the time, and it is a waste of money to have the car parked in the parking lot for the rest of the time. The average annual cost of each car is up to $9,000.
Although car accidents sometime occur to the autonomous vehicles, Elaine Chao, the new United States Secretary of Transportation, believes that traffic accidents are matters of life and death, but autonomous vehicles have safer performance and thus shall be viewed positively, especially under the increase of traffic accidents in the US. The urban traffic jam in the US has been serious, which results in hundreds of billions of dollars of loss every year. The traffic revolution brought by the new generation automobiles is in urgent need. It will also bring innovative services of new energy.
Germany, China, the US and Japan have the same ambition to reform the automobile industry by increasing the technology component in the industry. The ecosystem of shared autonomous vehicles will mature in the next ten years. “Car as-a-service” is expected to be the third traffic revolution and will be made available to all. People can easily enjoy various vehicles without the burden of expensive parking spaces. This will dramatically change the ecosystem of the existing automobiles. Under such circumstances, how should Taiwan seize the opportunities?
The growth momentum of Taiwan’s ICT industry has slowed down. However, the automotive technology innovation and the third urban traffic revolution are good opportunities for Taiwan to integrate ICT industry and automobile industry. Three suggestions are proposed as follows:
I. The Forward-Looking Infrastructure Plan shall include the infrastructure for shared electronic autonomous vehicles: the Government should amend the detailed traffic regulations to make Taiwan the world’s most friendly country for autonomous vehicles, allow the road testing for domestic and foreign autonomous vehicles, and clarify the guidelines for handling traffic accidents.
II. Actively plan for automotive forward-looking technology: support the key R&D and innovation of the forward-looking technologies of software and hardware of autonomous vehicles, including the in-depth AI application to the autonomous vehicles, and adopting the new concept of “product as a service” in the R&D of integrated service platform that are based on “autonomous vehicles as a service” and attractive to the international community.
III. Optimization of Taiwan’s new generation of automotive industrial chain: for example, TSMC to undertake nVidia AI automotive chip foundry; and factory expansion and technology advance of Tesla’s supply chain in Taiwan. In addition, Hon Hai Precision Industry has been working on the automotive electronics field for several years, while Innolux Corporation has been cultivating the market of premium luxury car panels since 2007 and has grasped the business opportunities of BMW, Porsche and Ford in recent years. Hon Hai Precision Industry even works with the international big manufacturers to accelerate the progress of electronic autonomous vehicles.

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